Currency Trading

Online Currency Trading

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Why Getting a Good Job isn’t the Best Way to Earn Money


There is a better way to make money। I’m not telling you to quit your job and become an anarchist। And I am not saying you’re stupid because you have a job. I have a job. So you ask, what did you mean?


A job is a way to earn money. It’s how most people earn money. It’s what I do today. It just isn’t the best way to earn money. I wish I would have known this twenty-five years ago. I wish my parents had taught me this, I wish the schools had taught me this. In a minute, I’ll share the secret with you.


I’ve had one job or another for 24 years। I’ve made all my money working for someone else.




I’ve had a job…



  • Picking Pumpkins

  • Peeling Shrimp – worst thing ever!

  • Driving a Truck

  • Maintaining Networks

  • Developing Software

  • Managing Customer Service

Today I have a great job that helps put my family in the top 5% of income earners in the United States. I am grateful for my company and my job.


I manage a team of software developers that enhance and maintain our Oracle e-business Suite. For me it is the perfect job, at the perfect company, with the perfect people. Like you, I worked hard to get where I am. I can’t imagine a job being much better. I don’t complain about my job and I have few worries about money.


So you’re probably thinking – so why do you wish you never believed a job was the best way to earn money?




Because If I knew ten or twenty years ago what I know now, I would have created far more value for myself and everybody else।




The best way to earn money is to build assets. When I say assets, I’m not talking about your home, an IRA, or a 401K. Let me explain.


Until recently, I believed entrepreneurship was the same as working for someone else, except with greater income potential. And instead of working for your boss, you work for your customer. For some entrepreneurs this is true, but for smart ones it isn’t true.


I read Rich Dad/Poor Dad and The E-Myth Revisited and it hit me…


Duh!


I should be building assets for my family. I wish I had spent the last twenty-five years building assets for myself instead of trading my time for money while building assets for someone else.


So this might be your next question – If you aren’t talking about my home, IRA, or a 401K, what assets are you talking about?




Real Estate – Rental Income




Twenty-Five years ago, a guy in my neighborhood had this figured out। He was a blue-collar union guy that worked a printing press for the Star Tribune. He saved his money over a decade and purchased several apartment buildings. The income from the rental property allowed him to quit his job and he used the time he saved to build a construction company. He told me once - do what you love and never work a day in your life. I didn’t get it then; I thought he was nuts. I get it now.




Businesses that are systems




If your business doesn’t run without you, it is a job. To be free, you need to own a business that generates income whether you are there or not. I know another guy that started a franchise restaurant when he was about twenty. He built the business up and trained good managers, which allowed him to step away. The restaurant produced income that paid his bills while he pursued other opportunities. He built a second restaurant and stepped away. Built a third restaurant and stepped away. Now he owns multiple restaurants that produce income – without him working at any of them – so he can spend his time fishing and golfing। Another example of this type of asset is Steve Pavlina’s website. Some people commented that Steve is telling everyone to quit their jobs and start blogging. That’s not what Steve is saying. Steve is telling you to be creative and build yourself an asset that works for you so you have time to pursue new opportunities. Blogging is just one of infinite ways you could do this. The only limit is your imagination.




Intellectual propartii




When you create intellectual property, you only work on the initial creation। Once it’s finished it can generate income for many generations. For example – Let’s say you wrote a book, and the book became popular, your family could receive income from it for several generations after you were dead. You’re making money from the grave!




A few types of intellectual property:



  • Books

  • Software

  • Audio

  • Music

  • Video

  • Scripts

  • Art

  • Patents

In my opinion, intellectual property is the best of the best ways for you to make money.


There are probably many other asset categories too.


So, since I wish I had never believed that getting a good job is the best way to earn money, I am not going to teach my sons this adage – get a good education so you can get a good job.


I’m going to teach my children this:




If you learn how to create value for other people – doing what you love – you’ll never have to get a job.

BEST WAY TO EARN MONEY ON THE INTERNET

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Charts for the technical analysis

Kinds of prices and time units. Charts for the technical analysis are being constructed in coordinates price (the vertical axis) time (the horizontal axis).

The following kinds of currency prices represented on charts are being distinguished on Forex:

* open - a price at the beginning of a trade period (year, month, day, week, hour, minute or a certain amount of one from these units);

* close - a price at the end of a trade period;

* high - the highest from prices observed during a trade period;

* low - the lowest from prices observed during a trade period.

Providing the technical analysis one uses charts for different time units  from 1 year or more till 1 minute. The bigger is a time unit applied for the chart plotting the bigger is a time span to analyze price movements and to determine the major trend by means of the chart. For the short trading charts for less time units are more suitable.

Line chart
। The line chart is plotted connecting single prices for a selected time period। The most popular line chart is the daily chart. Although any point in the day can be plotted, most traders focus on the closing price, which they perceive as the most important. But an immediate problem with the daily line chart is the fact that it is impossible to see the price activity for the balance of the period as well as gaps  breakups in prices at joints of trade periods. Nevertheless, line charts are easier to visualize. Also, technical analysis goes well beyond chart formation; in order to execute certain models and techniques, line charts are better suited than any of the other charts.

Bar chart
The bar chart consists from separate histograms। To plot a histogram in coordinates price  time the points responding to high, low, open and close prices for a time period analyzed should be marked on the one vertical bar. The opening price usually is marked with a little horizontal line to the left of the bar; and the closing price is marked with a little horizontal line to the right of the bar. Bar charts have the obvious advantage of displaying the currency range for the period selected. An advantage of this chart is that, unlike line charts, the bar chart is able to plot price gaps. Hence, it is impossible to see on a bar chart absolutely all price movements during the period.


Candlestick chart
। candlestick chart is closely related to the bar chart. It also consists of four major prices: high, low, open, and close. In addition to the common readings, the candlestick chart has a set of particular interpretations. The latter is possible thanks to the convenient visual observation of that chart.

The opening and closing prices form the body (jittai) of the candlestick. To indicate that the opening was lower than the closing, the body of the bar is left blank. Current standard electronic displays allow you to keep it blank or select a color of your choice. If the currency closes below its opening, the body is filled. In its original form, the body was colored black, but the electronic displays allow you to keep it filled or to select a color of your choice. The intraday (or weekly) direction on a candlestick chart can be traced by means of two "shadows": the upper shadow (uwakage) and the lower shadow (shitakage). Just as with a bar chart, the candlestick chart is unable to trace every price movement during a period's activity.

Forex Glossary

Here are some of the most common terms used in FOREX trading.

Ask Price
¨C Sometimes called the Offer Price, this is the market price for traders to buy currencies। Ask Prices are shown on the right side of a quote ¨C e.g. EUR/USD 1.1965 / 68 ¨C means that one euro can be bought for 1.1968 UD dollars.

Bar Chart
¨C A type of chart used in Technical Analysis। Each time division on the chart is displayed as a vertical bar which show the following information ¨C the top of the bar is the high price, the bottom of the bar is the low price, the horizontal line on the left of the bar shows the opening price and the horizontal line on the right of bar shows the closing price.

Base Currency
¨C is the first currency in a currency pair। A quote shows how much the base currency is worth in the quote (second) currency. For example, in the quote - USD/JPY 112.13 ¨C US dollars are the base currency, with 1 US dollar being worth 112.13 Japanese yen.


Bid Price
¨C is the price a trader can sell currencies। The Bid Price is shown on the left side of a quote - e.g. EUR/USD 1.1965 / 68 ¨C means that one euro can be sold for 1.1965 UD dollars.

Bid/Ask spread
¨C is the difference between the bid price and the ask price in any currency quotation। The spread represents the broker's fee, and varies from broker to broker।

Broker
¨C the intermediary between buyer and seller। Most FOREX brokers are associated with large financial institutions and earn money by setting a spread between bid and ask prices.


Candlestick Chart
- A type of chart used in Technical Analysis। Each time division on the chart is displayed as a candlestick ¨C a red or green vertical bar with extensions above and below the candlestick body. The top of the extension shows the highest price for the chart division and the bottom of the extension shows the lowest price. Red candlesticks indicate a lower closing price than opening price, and green candlesticks indicate the price is rising.

Cross Currency
¨C A currency pair that does not include US dollars ¨C e।g। EUR/GBP.


Currency Pair
¨C Two currencies involved in a FOREX transaction ¨C e।g. EUR/USD.

Economic Indicator
¨C A statistical report issued by governments or academic institutions indicating economic conditions within a country।

First In First Out (FIFO)
¨C refers to the order open orders are liquidated। The first orders to be liquidated are the first that were opened।


Foreign Exchange (FOREX, FX)
¨C Simultaneously buying one currency and selling another।

Fundamental Analysis
¨C Analysis of political and economic conditions that can affect currency prices.


Leverage or Margin
¨C The ratio of the value of a transaction to the required deposit. A common margin for FOREX trading is 100:1 ¨C you can trade currency worth 100 times the amount of your deposit.


Limit Order
¨C An order to buy or sell when the price reaches a specified level.


Lot
¨C The size of a FOREX transaction। Standard lots are worth about 100,000 US dollars.


Major Currency
¨C The euro, German mark, Swiss franc, British pound, and the Japanese yen are the major currencies.


Minor Currency
¨C The Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, and the New Zealand dollar are the minor currencies.


One Cancels the Other (OCO)
¨C Two orders placed simultaneously with instructions to cancel the second order on execution of the first।

Open Position
¨C An active trade that has not been closed.


Pips or Points
¨C The smallest unit a currency can be traded in।

Quote Currency
¨C The second currency in a currency pair. In the currency pair USD/EUR the euro is the quote currency.


Rollover
¨C Extending the settlement time of spot deals to the current delivery date. The cost of rollover is calculated using swap points based on interest rate differentials.


Technical Analysis
¨C Analysis of historical market data to predict future movements in the market.


Tick
¨C The minimum change in price.


Transaction Cost
¨C The cost of a FOREX transaction ¨C typically the spread between bid and ask prices.


Volatility
¨C A statistical measure indicating the tendency of sharp price movements within a period of time.

Forex Trading Education - The London Open Checklist

A thorough Forex trading education must include an understanding of the effect market timings can have on trading and liquidity.

One of the most active periods of the day is from the time the London market opens. Often around that time good trading opportunities will appear.

As part of your Forex trading education, learn to analyze market conditions around London open and begin to recognize good setups.

The following questionnaire and checklist will help.

London Open Preparation

About 15 to 30 minutes before London open check the answers to these questions:

- Are the MACD indicators on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts in agreement? If they are not going in the same direction be very careful!

- Is there MACD divergence on the 4 hour, 1 hour, or 15 minute chart? Look for other clues to confirm that price may go in the direction of MACD divergence.

- On the 4 hour chart what is the overall trend?

- Do a Fibonacci calculation on the last swing high and low and see if price is pulling back to an optimum retracement level or whether it is reaching a key extension level.

- Note price in relation to the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 4 hour, 1 hour and 15 minute charts. Is price bucking the trend? In other words, is price above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but below it on the 15 minute? Then be prepared for price to go long at some stage. (Draw the opposite conclusion if price is below the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but above it on the 15 minute chart.)

- Are any Economic Reports imminent?

- As the candle closes on the 15 minute chart at London open, do you see any distinctive candle patterns such as tweezers, or doji's or hammers indicating price exhaustion?

- If I entered a trade right now in a particular direction, what would be the risk and where would I place my stop?

Within a few minutes of London open, if you see a number of factors converging from the analysis above, make a decision one way or the other:

- trade

- wait for clearer signals or a better entry point

Carrying out an analysis in this way each day at London open will do much to increase your Forex trading education.

It will make you aware of what is happening on the charts and in the marketplace and help you to arrive at conclusions.

There is no magic formula involved with Forex trading education. Put simply, successful Forex trading is the result of years of hard work, study, practice, and experience often gained through painful trading scenarios.

Eventually the newer trader learns mental discipline, and how to control the emotions - probably the biggest part of a Forex trading education.

Practice a procedure like the one above day after day and begin to see some progress as you get nearer the time you make profits consistently from currency trading.

Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk

International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates. This uncertainty leads to volatility and the need for an effective vehicle to hedge foreign exchange rate risk and/or interest rate changes while, at the same time, effectively ensuring a future financial position.

Each entity and/or individual that has exposure to foreign exchange rate risk will have specific foreign exchange hedging needs and this website can not possibly cover every existing foreign exchange hedging situation. Therefore, we will cover the more common reasons that a foreign exchange hedge is placed and show you how to properly hedge foreign exchange rate risk.

Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Exposure - Foreign exchange rate risk exposure is common to virtually all who conduct international business and/or trading. Buying and/or selling of goods or services denominated in foreign currencies can immediately expose you to foreign exchange rate risk. If a firm price is quoted ahead of time for a contract using a foreign exchange rate that is deemed appropriate at the time the quote is given, the foreign exchange rate quote may not necessarily be appropriate at the time of the actual agreement or performance of the contract. Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Interest Rate Risk Exposure - Interest rate exposure refers to the interest rate differential between the two countries' currencies in a foreign exchange contract. The interest rate differential is also roughly equal to the "carry" cost paid to hedge a forward or futures contract. As a side note, arbitragers are investors that take advantage when interest rate differentials between the foreign exchange spot rate and either the forward or futures contract are either to high or too low. In simplest terms, an arbitrager may sell when the carry cost he or she can collect is at a premium to the actual carry cost of the contract sold. Conversely, an arbitrager may buy when the carry cost he or she may pay is less than the actual carry cost of the contract bought. Either way, the arbitrager is looking to profit from a small price discrepancy due to interest rate differentials.

Foreign Investment / Stock Exposure - Foreign investing is considered by many investors as a way to either diversify an investment portfolio or seek a larger return on investment(s) in an economy believed to be growing at a faster pace than investment(s) in the respective domestic economy. Investing in foreign stocks automatically exposes the investor to foreign exchange rate risk and speculative risk. For example, an investor buys a particular amount of foreign currency (in exchange for domestic currency) in order to purchase shares of a foreign stock. The investor is now automatically exposed to two separate risks. First, the stock price may go either up or down and the investor is exposed to the speculative stock price risk. Second, the investor is exposed to foreign exchange rate risk because the foreign exchange rate may either appreciate or depreciate from the time the investor first purchased the foreign stock and the time the investor decides to exit the position and repatriates the currency (exchanges the foreign currency back to domestic currency). Therefore, even if a speculative profit is achieved because the foreign stock price rose, the investor could actually net lose money if devaluation of the foreign currency occurred while the investor was holding the foreign stock (and the devaluation amount was greater than the speculative profit). Placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage this foreign exchange rate risk.

Hedging Speculative Positions - Foreign currency traders utilize foreign exchange hedging to protect open positions against adverse moves in foreign exchange rates, and placing a foreign exchange hedge can help to manage foreign exchange rate risk. Speculative positions can be hedged via a number of foreign exchange hedging vehicles that can be used either alone or in combination to create entirely new foreign exchange hedging strategies.

Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave

When evaluating the forex market for swing trade opportunities the focus is placed on predicting directional changes or continuations for a given currency pair. For this we rely on technical analysis.

In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.

You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.

Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed this action to the mass psychology of the market.

Elliott concluded that the market¡¯s movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individual branches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.

Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?

Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡¯s theories were based on stock market price movements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.

The conclusion, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. If the mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that because there is a bull market the mood of the investing public is upbeat.

Elliott Wave patterns follow a sequence that the markets move up in a series of 3 waves and down in a series of 2 waves. This 3 wave impulse and 2 wave corrective sequence form the foundation of the 5 Wave impulse pattern (the opposite is true in a downtrend).

The Elliott Wave Counts are as follows;

Wave 1 - Short Covering
Wave 2 - Pullback from Short Covering
Wave 3 - Major Rally Phase
Wave 4 - Institution Pause in the Rally
Wave 5 - Retail Buying

Wave 1 is usually the weakest of the impulse waves. It is a brief rally based on short covering of the bears from a previous move down. When Wave 1 is complete, the currency pair sells off, creating Wave 2.

Wave 2 ends when the market fails to make new lows. You often see dominant reversals patterns form at the end of this wave signaling the being of the rally phase or Wave 3.

Wave 3 is the longest and strongest of the impulse waves. This signals strong currency buying or selling in the direction of the trend. This trend usually starts of slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.

Like any trend, especially a strong trend a correction will occur. Traders will begin to take profits and the currency pair will retrace. This signals the beginning of Wave 4.

Again the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. Wave 5 is typically supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers (the herd) and tends to lack the momentum generated in the Wave 3 rally. This creates divergence that can be easily measured on any technical oscillator. After the currency pair breaks to new highs above the previous Wave 3 high, the rally loses steam and changes trend.

This trend change can result in either a new 5 Wave impulse pattern or a corrective in nature.

Now that we know what the Elliott Wave analysis is, how would a currency trade using this analysis look like, just as an example?

Look to Wave 5 as the most reliably tradable impulse wave. The trade sets up as follows. Look for the Elliott Oscillator to pull back between 90% and 140% of the Wave 3 high on a daily chart. This pullback should correspond to a 38%-62% Fibonacci retracement from the Wave 2 extension. This signal is the strongest when the Fibonacci retracement is between 38% - 50%.

Like any technical analysis tool you never want to employ an indicator as a stand alone analysis tool. A trigger and a confirming indicator are required as well.

Look for a trigger in candle patterns, such as Harami, Tweezers or Harami cross. There are a variety of software packages on the market that perform Elliott Wave counts and have other entry signal indicators as well.

Draw a regression channel on the Wave 4 retracement and look for a break above or below the channel as confirmation to enter the trade.

Place stops at the high of the Wave 1 advance, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level or where your individual trading plan dictates. Trail your stops once the currency pair has advanced past the Wave 3 high. Look for reversal candle patterns like doji, hammers, shooting stars or hanging mans for signals that the wave is about to end or stall. A typical price target is 127% retracement of the Wave 4 low.

This is just a glimpse of how Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance your forex swing trade evaluations. Look more into the Elliott Wave theory and other strategies as tools for increasing your forex swing trade opportunities.